Jerusalem, Israel: Israel's upcoming parliamentary election remains closely contested, with the latest opinion polls showing a narrow gap between the political bloc supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and parties seeking an alternative government.
A Channel 13 poll published on September 23 put the presumed opposition bloc on 52 seats, compared with 51 seats for parties aligned with Netanyahu. Arab parties were projected to win 13 seats, while another four seats were allocated to a party led by Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha that has not committed itself to either camp.
The figures are significant because Israel's Knesset has 120 seats, meaning a coalition requires at least 61 seats to command a parliamentary majority. Neither of the two principal blocs reaches that threshold in the latest survey.
The Channel 13 poll also showed Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party as the largest individual party, with 22 projected seats. Netanyahu's Likud followed with 18 seats, while the Democrats and Naftali Bennett's B'Yachad were each projected to win 11.
The latest figures illustrate how quickly Israel's political landscape can shift during the election campaign. A Channel 13 survey from the previous week had shown parties supporting Netanyahu with a narrow advantage, making the latest movement particularly notable.
A separate Channel 12 poll also showed the opposition bloc ahead, projecting 54 seats compared with 50 for Netanyahu's coalition. The survey placed Yashar at 23 seats and Likud at 20.
The differences between individual surveys highlight the uncertainty surrounding the race. Polls use different samples, methodologies and fieldwork periods, and small changes in projected seats can alter the apparent balance between the blocs.
A poll-of-polls maintained by the Middle East Forum, using the newest survey from each polling organization over a 14-day period, showed an average of 55 seats for opposition parties and 53 for Netanyahu's government bloc, with 12 seats going to Arab parties. The aggregation covered polling conducted through September 22.
The central issue emerging from the surveys is not simply which bloc is ahead, but whether either side can assemble the 61 seats required to form a government.
The latest Channel 13 figures leave both major blocs below the majority threshold. This means that the composition and decisions of smaller parties could become important in determining the eventual parliamentary configuration.
Israel's proportional representation system frequently results in multiple parties entering the Knesset, making coalition negotiations an important part of government formation.
The current polling also indicates that individual party strength and bloc arithmetic do not necessarily produce the same picture. A party can emerge as the largest faction without its broader political camp having enough seats to govern independently.
The latest Channel 13 survey places Eisenkot's Yashar party at the top with 22 seats, while Likud, led by Netanyahu, is projected to receive 18.
The result comes as both established and newly formed political parties compete for voters ahead of the October 27 election.
Eisenkot, a former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff, has emerged as a central figure among parties opposing Netanyahu. Netanyahu remains the leader of Likud and heads the current governing camp.
The polling numbers, however, represent projections rather than election results. Voter preferences can change before election day, and parties must also cross Israel's electoral threshold to win representation in the Knesset.
Arab parties could hold an important number of seats in the next Knesset. The latest Channel 13 survey projected 13 seats for Arab parties, including eight for the Joint List and five for Ra'am.
Another four projected seats were assigned to the Hendel-Zelekha party, which has not aligned itself with either of the two principal blocs.
These parties could therefore become relevant to coalition arithmetic, depending on the final election results and subsequent political negotiations. However, polling numbers alone do not determine whether parties will cooperate after an election.
Israel is scheduled to hold its parliamentary election on October 27, 2026. With the vote approaching, new surveys are expected to continue providing snapshots of voter sentiment.
Recent polling demonstrates that the balance between Netanyahu's bloc and his opponents remains close and that neither side currently has a clear path to the 61-seat threshold based solely on the principal blocs.
The final composition of the Knesset will depend on votes cast on election day and the distribution of seats among parties that cross the electoral threshold.
For now, the latest surveys point to a closely divided political landscape, with competing blocs remaining below the majority needed to govern alone.
Source: Channel 13 and Channel 12 polling, as reported by Israeli and international media.
